Tessellate HR Q4 forecast note, Sep 30
Tessellate HR Q4 forecast note, Sep 30
Owner: Marco Diaz. Updated Sep 30, 2026.
The note at a glance
The Q4 forecast note for Tessellate HR, built from the pipeline Hannah Okafor approved on Tuesday, Sep 29, with the three deals that carry the variance named and every changed assumption listed. Prepared by Marco Diaz, lead consultant at Quarry Lane RevOps, for Hannah and the Tessellate finance lead. Status of open items as of October 1, 2026.
Dollar figures on this page are modeled sample values.
From the August note to September 30
Commit fell $100,000 from the August note, and three deals account for all of it. Best case fell $23,000, all of it from one of those deals. Nothing else in the pipeline moved the Q4 number: the deals that entered Negotiation this fortnight carry Q1 close dates, except Granite Peak Energy, whose close quarter Priya Nair is confirming and which stays outside Q4 commit until she does.
| Step | Commit | Best case | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| August note | $1,250,000 | $1,663,000 | Pipeline under the August stage definitions |
| Meridian Care Group | Down $46,000 | No change | Moved back from Negotiation to Proposal after procurement reopened pricing |
| Hollin Foods | Down $31,000 | No change | Moved back from Negotiation to Proposal while legal reviews the data terms |
| Alderbrook Retail | Down $23,000 | Down $23,000 | Buyer cut the seat count; value fell from $61,000 to $38,000 |
| All other deals, net | No change | No change | No other Q4-dated deal changed category or value |
| September 30 note | $1,150,000 | $1,640,000 | Matches the approved pipeline after the rerun |
A commit number that cannot be walked back to named deals is an opinion. This one can, and the walk is the table above.
The three deals that carry the variance
Meridian Care Group, $46,000. Back in Proposal after procurement reopened pricing. A pricing session is set for Oct 8. It stays in Best case if the close remains in Q4.
Hollin Foods, $31,000. Back in Proposal while legal reviews the data terms. The record has no next step date, which is also one of the six data gaps from the Sep 29 review.
Alderbrook Retail, $38,000 after the seat cut. It stays in Negotiation and in Commit at the lower value.
What changed in the assumptions
Stage mapping
Discovery and Evaluation map to the Pipeline category, so they never reach Commit or Best case. Qualification stays for records created before Sep 28. Proposal still maps to Best case and Negotiation to Commit.
Why it matters. The first export used last month's stage definitions, so its variance did not match the approved pipeline. The rerun against the current definitions is the figure in this note.
Close dates
A close date in a closed quarter is not read as Q4. Two enterprise deals carry such dates, so they sit outside Q4 commit, as they did in August. Their effect on the variance is $0.
Open. Aisha Rahman and Callum Reid confirm the close dates by Friday, Oct 9. If either is confirmed in Q4, that deal is added as its own line and the note is reissued; it is not folded into the commit total silently.
Deal values
The note takes each deal at the value on the opportunity when the pipeline was approved. Alderbrook Retail is the only Q4-dated deal whose value changed, from $61,000 to $38,000.
Open. Tomas Berg confirms the $38,000 in writing by Oct 7.
Hand-set categories
Forecast category follows stage under the approved mapping. Nine Evaluation opportunities were set to Commit by hand in the Sep 30 forecast, so they are shown in Pipeline here. A guard rule that blocks Commit on Discovery and Evaluation is with Hannah for decision by Oct 14.
Data caveat
Nine Evaluation opportunities were set to Commit by hand
Their owners edited the forecast category directly, although the approved mapping places Evaluation in Pipeline. Together they are $214,000 (modeled sample figure). This note does not count them in Commit. Anyone reading the CRM forecast view without the mapping will see a Commit figure $214,000 higher, and a board number built on it would be overstated. Hannah decides the guard rule by Oct 14; until then Marco shows both readings.
| Reading | Commit | Against this note |
|---|---|---|
| This note, approved mapping | $1,150,000 | None |
| CRM forecast view with the nine hand-set | $1,364,000 | Up $214,000 |
| First export, August definitions (withdrawn) | $1,106,000 | Down $44,000 |
How the first export differed
Run on the evening of Sep 29, the first export read stage definitions from the August note. It showed commit at $1,106,000, down 11.5 percent, which is $44,000 below what the approved pipeline supports, so its variance could not be traced to deals. Marco asked for the export to be rerun against the current definitions. The rerun on Sep 30 matched the approved pipeline at $1,150,000. The first export is withdrawn and is not used anywhere in this note.
Reconciliation checklist
Until the owner confirmations are in, the variance is traced to the CRM record, not to a conversation with each owner. If any figure changes, Marco reissues the note and says what moved.
Who is on this note
Demo client portal. Quarry Lane RevOps, Tessellate HR, the people, deals and every figure are fictional sample data. Built on FuseBase.